Experiencing my biggest fall. How much is just the variation?
Experiencing my biggest fall.  How much is just the variation?
So I've been learning and playing poker part-time for the last three and a half years. I've played about 600 hours and have been lucky enough to win consistently (without crazy variations) at a win rate of just under 10bb/hour. This is not my biggest dollar loss, but the amount of BB I lost alarms me. Now I mostly play $3/5 and once a week I play my local game down the street which is $1/3 (they only offer it once a week and I'd rather not drive an hour when I can walk down the street ). ) so it's below my capabilities, but it's still a good game. During a 10-hour session I lost $1635, which is more than 500 bbs and the maximum deposit is $300. In the last 25 hours at $1/3 I have lost almost $3000. I have never experienced a drop like this in terms of BB in such a short time. Running this on Primedope's variance calculator with my observed win rate over 600 hours shows that there is less than a 5% chance of losing that much in such a short period of time. That said, in every big pot I've played I've had a lot of bad luck. Set on set, pot on pot, top pot against set and the guy got quads, everyone in AA against AK and AK got a flush by the river, etc. In every huge pot I had over 80% chance of winning and they just sucked me in. and normally things like that don't worry me, but the amount of money I lost is so statistically improbable that it's starting to make me question my poker skills, even though these particular players are terrible and I can read every one of them as if they were a book I'm curious if anyone has similar great BB drops they'd like to share or some words of encouragement or tips to determine how much of this is due to skill and how much is due to variation and things like that. I know I've been lucky not to experience crazy swings recently like the chart indicates, so I'm not sure how crazy this is. I've heard some pretty crazy stories and I've seen a couple of people lose more than that in a day, but it's the people who come in and get into all the blind hands trying to bet that can afford something like that. I've never seen that happen to anyone with common sense at the table. It's hard to understand when I feel like I played particularly well that day. I attached some charts to show my big wins and losses over the last year to show how small they really are, but right now it just doesn't seem like it. “Total bank” = winnings this year and the reason I colored the names in the recent sessions is because they are from card counting and have casino names, plus they are not really relevant to the post. The reason they are 2 separate entries is because I took a break from the table for an hour, my first session came back and I forgot to add the second one in my app until recently. 문화상품권 현금화
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